Poll: Chances of global recession rise under pressure from Trump's tariffs

 

Fears of the global economy slipping into recession

Poll: Chances of global recession rise under pressure from Trump's tariffs

A majority of economists surveyed by Reuters expect the likelihood of a global recession this year to rise, citing US tariffs as a major drag on business confidence and markets.

Just three months ago, the same group of experts, covering some 50 economies worldwide, predicted strong and steady global growth.

However, US President Donald Trump's moves to reshape global trade rules by imposing sweeping tariffs on all US imports have sent shockwaves through financial markets, resulting in billions of dollars in losses in stock markets and eroding confidence in US assets, including the dollar.

Although Trump has temporarily postponed the implementation of the higher tariffs on most trading partners, a general 10% tariff remains in place, along with additional tariffs of up to 145% on products from China, the United States' largest trading partner.

Businesses Face Stifling Uncertainty

James Rossiter, head of global macro research at TD Securities, said the current uncertainty is making it difficult for companies to plan even for the next few months. He added: "It's hard to even think about July without certainty about counter-tariffs, let alone years ahead?"

With the mounting uncertainty and rising import costs, many global companies have been forced to revise their revenue forecasts, either downgrading them or withdrawing them entirely.