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Trump may win under certain conditions. How is the Nobel Peace Prize winner determined?
338 candidates are competing, and the award will be announced on October 10 in Oslo.
The 2025 Nobel Peace Prize laureate will be announced on October 10.
While the US president has repeatedly hinted that he deserves the Nobel Peace Prize, Nobel experts say he could win only if he changes his policies.
Below is an overview of the award mechanism:
* Who decides the winner?
The Norwegian Nobel Committee, composed of five members appointed by the Norwegian Parliament, is the arbiter. Members are often, but not always, retired politicians. The current committee is chaired by the president of the Norwegian branch of PEN International, a group that advocates for freedom of expression. The committee also includes a university professor among its members.
They are all nominated by Norwegian political parties, and their appointment reflects the balance of power in the Norwegian Parliament.
* Who is eligible to win?
Short answer: Whoever meets the criteria set forth by Swedish industrialist Alfred Nobel in his will of 1895. The will stipulates that the prize should be awarded to the person who "shall have done the greatest or best work for promoting fraternity among nations, the abolition or reduction of standing armies, and the establishment and promotion of peace congresses."
The more complex answer, says Christian Berg Harpviken, secretary of the prize committee, is that the prize "needs to be placed in its current context." Harpviken participates in the preparation of the prize committee's work and in the deliberations, but does not cast a vote.
"They will take a look at the world and see what's happening, what global trends are, what the major concerns are, and what the most promising processes we see," he told Reuters. "And processes here could mean anything from a specific peace process to a new type of international agreement that's under development or recently adopted."
Who is eligible to nominate?
Thousands of people can propose names, including members of governments and parliaments, current heads of state, university professors in history, the social sciences, law, and philosophy, past Nobel Peace Prize winners, and more.
There are 338 nominees this year. The full list remains locked in a vault and will not be revealed for 50 years.
* How does the committee decide?
Nominations close on January 31. Committee members may submit their own nominations no later than their first meeting in February. Members will discuss all nominations and then develop a shortlist. A team of permanent advisors and other experts will then review and evaluate each candidate individually.
The committee meets approximately once a month to review nominations. Harpviken said the decision is usually made in August or September.
The committee seeks to reach consensus on its selection. If this is not possible, the decision is made by a majority vote.
The last time a member resigned in protest over the winner was in 1994, when Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat shared the prize with Israelis Shimon Peres and Yitzhak Rabin.
* Who are the candidates?
Although the full list of nominees remains confidential, there is nothing preventing applicants from revealing their choices themselves. There is no way to verify the accuracy of their announcements.
Among the names revealed this year are the International Criminal Court, NATO, imprisoned Hong Kong activist Chow Hang-tung, and Canadian human rights lawyer Irwin Cotler.
The leaders of Cambodia, Israel, and Pakistan announced their nominations to US President Donald Trump. They submitted their nominations in the spring and summer of 2025, after the January 31 deadline, so nominations are not valid for the 2025 award.
* Can Trump win?
Nobel experts say President Trump could win only if he changes his policies. Experts say Trump is currently dismantling the international world order the committee is keen to uphold.
Experts believe the committee will likely choose a humanitarian organization, journalists, or a UN agency. However, it is not unlikely that the committee will surprise everyone with an unexpected choice.
The Japanese group Nihon Hidankyo, representing atomic bomb survivors, won the prize last year. The threat of nuclear weapons has long been a focus of the committee.
* What does the prize winner get?
A medal, a certificate of appreciation, 11 million Swedish kronor ($1.19 million) and immediate worldwide attention.
* When is the announcement and party?
The committee chairman, Jørgen Watten-Frednes, will announce the laureate at 11:00 CET (09:00 GMT) on Friday, October 10, at the Norwegian Nobel Institute in Oslo.
The ceremony will be held at Oslo City Hall on December 10, the anniversary of Alfred Nobel's death.
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