An American expert warns of a catastrophic war between Washington and Beijing

 

American writer and political scientist Graham Allison has warned of a bloody war between China and the United States across Taiwan. Fortunately, the American and Chinese governments realize that a hot war would be a disaster for them, and no stoic person in either government wants a war

Unfortunately, history provides many examples in which competing states whose leaders did not want to go to war were forced to make fateful choices between accepting what they considered an unacceptable loss on the one hand, and taking a step that increased the risks of war on the other

The classic example is World War I. In June 1914, Frans Ferdinand, heir to the throne of Hungary and Austria, was advised not to go to Sarajevo, as the US Department of Defense had advised Pelosi before her visit. But no one imagined that he would be assassinated during his visit, sparking the first world war

Russia felt the need to support its Orthodox Christian brothers in Serbia, and led one step to another in a vicious circle of actions and reactions that plunged all of Europe into the furnace of war within five weeks

Allison added that in the bigger picture of history, when a rapidly rising power dangerously threatens to displace a major ruling power, their competition often ends in war. Today, the United States and China are engaged in the greatest competition of all time. In this conflict, is war over Taiwan inevitable? The historical record indicates that war is most likely

Allison concluded his report by saying that if the best that the current American and Chinese governments can do is to show statesmanship as usual, which was witnessed last week, then history should be expected to proceed as usual. Tragically, history as usual will mean a catastrophic war that could destroy both sides