After half a century in the sky, Hubble faces its final destination: Earth.

 

the Hubble Space Telescope

After half a century in the sky, Hubble faces its final destination: Earth.

For more than three decades, the Hubble Space Telescope has played a pivotal role in revolutionizing astronomy and cosmology.

Hubble has given humanity an unprecedented understanding of the age and extent of the universe, in addition to stunning images that have become scientific and cultural icons, but this extraordinary journey is nearing its end, according to a new study that addressed the fate of the telescope after the end of its orbital life.

Since its launch in 1990, Hubble has orbited Earth in a low orbit at a speed of approximately 28,000 kilometers per hour, making more than 1.3 million astronomical observations. Its precise observations of Type Ia supernovae and Cepheid variable stars have helped determine the rate of expansion of the universe, led to the discovery of dark energy, and helped settle the debate about the age of the universe, which has now been settled at about 13.8 billion years, after previously being estimated to be between 10 and 20 billion years.

Despite these achievements, Hubble was not designed to remain in orbit forever. Its constant, albeit weak, friction with the edges of Earth's atmosphere gradually leads to a decline in its orbit, eventually bringing it closer to falling towards Earth.

 Unlike in the past, it is no longer possible to extend its lifespan through manned maintenance missions, and the plan to recover it using the space shuttle was cancelled after the retirement of the shuttle program.

A recent study analyzed scenarios for the deterioration of the telescope's orbit and the timing of its atmospheric reentry, as well as the potential risks posed by debris. The findings suggest that the best-case scenario could keep Hubble in its orbit until 2040, while the worst-case scenario could see an uncontrolled reentry by 2029, with 2033 considered the most likely date.

According to the study, the telescope's debris could be scattered across a range of 350 to 800 kilometers on Earth's surface, with the level of risk varying considerably depending on the impact site. While the overall probability of human casualties remains low, it still exceeds NASA's acceptable limits, which stipulate that the risk of injury should not exceed one in 10,000.

The study warns that worst-case scenarios could include debris falling on densely populated areas such as Macau, Hong Kong, or Singapore, potentially resulting in multiple casualties, although this is unlikely. Therefore, the researchers recommend more thorough studies that consider the role of solar activity and geomagnetic conditions, along with updated population risk assessments in areas along the potential impact path.

While Hubble still has years ahead of it in orbit, researchers stress that advance planning is essential so that the end of one of the greatest symbols of modern science is not tainted by unforeseen risks to the inhabitants of Earth. The study's findings were published via NASA's Technical Reports Server.